The Los Angeles Lakers are short home favorites on Monday night for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals against the Denver Nuggets. Anthony Davis and Aaron Gordon figure to play significant roles in this matchup, and Alex Hinton has a pair of PrizePicks plays ready for them.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in NBA Playoffs slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Aaron Gordon Fewer Than 5.5 Rebounds
In the first two rounds of the playoffs, Aaron Gordon recorded six rebounds in nine of 11 games. However, in the Western Conference Finals, Gordon is averaging just 3.3 rebounds and has finished below this projection of 5.5 boards in all three games. Gordon is averaging 35.7 minutes per game in this series, but sharing the floor with two elite rebounders has not helped him. Per NBAStats, Nikola Jokic is averaging 14.7 rebounds on 23.3 rebounding chances per game while Anthony Davis is averaging 14 rebounds on 22.3 rebounding chances.
Gordon is averaging just 6.7 rebounding chances and is converting half of them. He has his hands defending LeBron James (who is driving to the basket at career-low rates) and at times Anthony Davis in this series. Davis has guarded him on defense, and in an effort to keep better spacing, Gordon has floated out to the perimeter, which has hurt his rebounding numbers.
Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are also contributing on the glass more. Murray is averaging 7.3 rebounds in this series and has 17 combined rebounds in the last two games. Porter Jr. is averaging nine rebounds in this series and has pulled down at least eight in four of the past six games.
With the over hitting in two of the games so far, these teams, particularly the Nuggets, have been humming offensively, and there have, consequently, been fewer missed shots and rebounds to go around. Gordon has been the one to take a step back in this series because of the nature of the matchups on both ends, and I expect him to land under this projection.
Anthony Davis More Than 16.5 Rebounds + Assists
As I mentioned, Anthony Davis is averaging 14 rebounds per game in this series and has averaged 14.1 boards per game for the playoffs. I like this play because Davis can surpass this projection with just rebounds alone if necessary. He has five games with at least 17 rebounds this postseason, including on Saturday night when he had 18 rebounds. Counting the Play-In Tournament, he also has finished with 15 rebounds in two other games.
It is unlikely that Davis gets a triple-double, but he is a capable facilitator who has recorded at least three assists in 10 of 16 games this postseason. A few have come while he has been doubled on the block, but he is capable at finding cutters when he is operating out of the high post.
Davis has surpassed this projection in three of his past five games and in two of three games in this series. With Davis guarding Gordon frequently on the defensive end while lurking near the basket, he is in prime position to not only hit this PrizePick but also keep Gordon off the boards and help our other play hit as well.
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